PEMODELAN PEMENUHAN KEBUTUHAN BATUBARA UNTUK PEMBANGKIT LISTRIK DI KALIMANTAN TIMUR

Abstract

East Kalimantan Province is one of the areas that are still experiencing shortage of electricity supply. Power generation in East Kalimantan until 2012 most of its primary energy source comes from petroleum which is getting more limited reserve day. While from total capacity of electric power plant in East Kalimantan until 2012, only 21.16% used coal as primary energy, whereas coal is one of the fossil energy reserves and spread in East Kalimantan with a total reserves of 12.018 million tons. In the meantime, it is estimated that in the future, the need for electric energy will increase as the impact of economic growth and the population. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare alternative energy such as coal as a substitute for petroleum and natural gas to be able to meet the electricity demand. The purpose of this research is to analyze the factors that influence the level of electicity demand in East Kalimantan Province in order to project electricity demand in 2020. The research method is model of electrical energy needs that are built based on the econometric model. The data used in this research are data on coal resources and reserves, regional economic growth, number of customers, and electricity price. The results of research with econometric model simulations assuming economic growth of 3.38% per year show that in 2022, the electricity demand in East Kalimantan was 4,995.37 GWh an average growth rate of electricity demand of 7.6%.