SYSTEM MODELLING OF BEEF AVAILABILITY IN IKN BUFFERAREAS USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS

Abstract

There are definitely several of pros and cons when relocating the country's capital
from Jakarta to IKN. One of them has to do with the food security. As one of the
IKN buffer areas, Balikpapan, has experienced issues with food security,
particularly with regard to the supply of beef. The amount of imported beef in
2016-2019 shows a prediction that the amount of imported beef will continue to
increase drastically yearly while the amount of local beef tends to decrease. The
government of Balikpapan predicts that there will be an increase in the migrant
population of up to 20.000 people each year due to the IKN, which can lead to an
increase in demand for beef. Factors affecting the availability of beef in
Balikpapan are local and imported beef availability, consumption, scarcity, and
population demographics. This research was conducted using a system simulation
approach with the system dynamic method to describe a complex system regarding
the availability of beef in Balikpapan. Based on the scenario that has been
developed, an effective policy that can be implemented to maintain the availability
of beef in Balikpapan is to increase the cattle feed fraction by 15% and increase
the arrival rate of imported beef by 10%. However, there is a need for an
intervention policy from the government to increase local beef production, which
is predicted to decrease, and minimize the amount of imported beef which
dominates in fulfilling the beef consumption needs of the people of Balikpapan.